摘要
学习是开发在老病人的在里面医院死亡是预兆的一个临床的风险模型的这的 ObjectivesThe 目的与尖锐的心就医了失败(AHF ) 从医院里的心病学部门的特别护理单位 60 岁以上的 .Methods2486 病人被分析。为在里面医院死亡的独立风险因素被二进制逻辑回归获得然后过去常建立风险预言分数系统(RPSS ) 。在接收装置操作符特征和 C 统计数值测试的曲线(AUC ) 下面的区域被采用估计 RPSS 的性能并且与指南心失败(GWTG-HF ) 与以前的 get 作比较 .ResultsBy 二进制代码逻辑回归分析，心率(或：1.043， 95% CI：1.030-1.057， P < 0.001 ) ，左室的喷射部分(或：0.918， 95% CI：0.833-0.966， P < 0.001 ) ， pH 价值(或：0.001， 95% CI：0.000-0.002， P < 0.001 ) ，肾的机能障碍(或：0.120， 95% CI：0.066-0.220， P < 0.001 ) 并且 NT 职业人员 BNP (或：3.463， 95% CI：1.870-6.413， P < 0.001 ) 是为老 AHF 病人的在里面医院死亡的独立风险因素。另外， RPSS，它是所有创作了上述参数，比 GWTG-THF 提供了更好的风险预言(AUC：0.873 对 0.818， P = 0.016 ).ConclusionsOur 风险预言模型， RPSS，在老病人为在里面医院死亡向好预言提供了 AHF。
Objectives The aim of this study was to develop a clinical risk model that is predictive of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients hos- pitalized with acute heart failure （AHF）. Methods 2486 patients who were 60 years and older from intensive care units of Cardiology De- partment in the hospital were analyzed. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were obtained by binary logistic regression and then used to establish the risk prediction score system （RPSS）. The area under the curve （AUC） of receiver operator characteristic and C-statistic test were adopted to assess the performance of RPSS and to compare with previous get with the guidelines-heart failure （GWTG-HF）. Re- sults By binary logistic regression analysis, heart rate （OR： 1.043, 95% CI： 1.030-1.057, P 〈 0.001）, left ventricular ejection fraction （OR： 0.918, 95% CI： 0.833~）.966, P 〈 0.001）, pH value （OR： 0.001, 95% CI： 0.000-0.002, P 〈 0.001）, renal dysfunction （OR： 0.120, 95% CI： 0.066M）.220, P 〈 0.001） and NT-pro BNP （OR： 3.463, 95% CI： 1.870-6.413, P 〈 0.001） were independent risk factors of in-hospital mortal- ity for elderly AHF patients. Additionally, RPSS, which was composed of all the above-mentioned parameters, provided a better risk predic- tion than GWTG-THF （AUC： 0.873 vs. 0.818, P = 0.016）. Conclusions Our risk prediction model, RPSS, provided a good prediction for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with A/IF.
