青海省门源县1980—2015年青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素

Analysis of highland barley phenophase change trend and the driving factors in Menyuan County,Qinghai Province during 1980—2015

利用1980—2015年青海省门源县农业气象站的青稞物候期及平行气温和降水资料,分析了气候变化背景下青海省门源县青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素,结果表明:播种、出苗和拔节期呈推迟趋势,其余物候期均呈提前趋势。其中播种期以2.65d/10a的趋势显著推迟,分蘖期、抽穗期分别以4.78d/10a和2.30d/10a的趋势显著提前。显著影响青稞物候期的气候因子为气温、降水和积温。播种前0℃活动积温升高1℃·d,期间降水量增加1mm,播种期推迟0.252d;稳定通过0℃积温增加1℃·d,分蘖期提前0.026d;4月最低气温升高1℃,抽穗期提前1.890d。自20世纪90年代出现播种推迟、分蘖期和抽穗期提前、驱动因子升高突变现象。物候期与驱动因素开始突变基本同步,表明青海高原气候变暖是青稞物候期变化的主导因素。

Highland barley phenophases and parallel temperature and precipitation data at the Menyuan Agricultural Meteorological Station, Qinghai Province, from 1980 to 2015, were used to analyze the change trend of highland barley phenology and its driving factors under a climate change background in Menyuan County, Qinghai Province. The results indicated that the sowing, seedling, and jointing stage tended to be delayed, whereas the phenological period overall was advanced. Sowing stage was significantly delayed by 2.65d/10a, and the tillering and heading stage were advanced by 4. 78d/10a and 2.30d/10a, respectively. The climatic factors that significantly affected the phenological periods of highland barley were temperature, precipitation, and accumulated temperature. When 0℃ accumulated temperature before sowing increased by 1℃ and precipitation increased by 1mm, sowing was delayed by 0.252d. When stable accumulated temperature increased by 1℃, the tillering stage was advanced by 0.026d, and when minimum temperature in April increased by 1℃, the heading stage advanced by 1.890d. Since the 1990s, the sowing stage delayed, the tillering stage and heading stage advanced, and the driving factors increased. The phenological period and the driving factors began to change at the same time, which indicated that the plateau of climate warming in Qinghai was the dominant factor determining the phenological changes of highland barley.