中国与原TPP成员国不同合作方式的经济效应研究——基于GTAP模型的分析

The economic effects of China's different approaches to cooperate with TPP countries: a numerical simulation based on the GTAP model

美国在主导TPP之后又宣布退出,再一次改变了TPP的命运,这也引发了中国是否应该接手TPP、主导亚太地区新一轮贸易一体化潮流的争论。利用GTAP模型对中国与除美国之外的TPP成员国采用"共同组建多边零关税自贸区"和"分别签署双边自贸协定"这两种合作方式可能产生的经济效应进行数值模拟研究,结果显示:中国采用"分别签署双边自贸协定"的方式与TPP国家合作所获得的利益不足以抵消TPP给中国经济带来的负面冲击,而采用"共同组建多边零关税自贸区"的方式可以使中国更加获益。另外,中国与TPP成员国的合作能够促进亚太地区资源的有效配置,巩固亚太区域价值链,使TPP成员国普遍受益。

After several years of dominating the TPP negotiation,the U. S. announced to quit from TPP and once again the fate of TPP was changed,which triggered the debate about whether China should take over and lead the new round of Asian-Pacific trade integration or not. The economic effects of China＇s two different approaches to cooperate with TPP countries（ excluding the U. S.）,which are ＂a united multilateral zero tariff FTA＂and＂bilateral FTAs with every TPP country（ excluding the U. S.） respectively＂,are numerically simulated by using the GTAP model. Results have shown that＂bilateral FTAs with every TPP country（ excluding the U. S.） respectively＂could not compensate its negative impacts on China,while＂a united multilateral zero tariff FTA＂could benefit China more. Besides,the cooperation among China and TPP countries could promote the efficiency of resource allocation and consolidate the regional value chain in Asian-Pacific region,and generally benefit all TPP countries.