中国资本调整的灵活加速机制:基于包含预期的IS-LM模型分析

The flexible acceleration mechanism of China's capital adjustment:based on IS-LM model with anticipation

在包含预期的IS-LM框架下,构建一个资本灵活加速调整模型,使用状态空间变系数及误差修正等计量方法,对我国资本存量的调整机制予以实证分析。结果表明:我国以市场需求为导向的资本调整灵活加速机制已经形成,但调整系数均值仅为0.22,作用力度较小,且具有递减的时变特征;同时0.429的资本重置率,反映出我国资本效率较低,存在资本重复建设、闲置与浪费;误差修正形式的长短期对比中,利率在短期内对投资的影响不显著,可见我国资本调整路径对利率等成本往往是忽视的,间接体现我国投资的软约束问题。因此在我国资本优化尤其是去产能过程中,短期内完全依赖市场并不现实,其调整能力有限。但我们还是应该坚持市场的长期导向性,谋求市场调整机制的稳步成长。

Under an IS-LM framework with anticipation,this paper constructs a new flexible acceleration model of investment,and analyzes the adjustment mechanism of capital stock in China by means of the state space model and the error correction model. The results show that China＇s demand-oriented flexible adjustment market mechanism has been formed,but the adjustment coefficient is only 0. 22,which is small and shows a decreasing trend. At the same time,the capital reset rate is 0. 429,which shows that China has low capital efficiency. Finally,the error correction model results show that the impact of the interest rate on the investment is not significant in the short term,so the enterprise is easy to ignore the investment cost in the case of soft constraints. Therefore,for our country＇s capital optimization,especially in the process of reducing excess production capacity,it is not realistic to rely solely on the market in the short run,because the ability of the market to adjust the capital is limited at the present stage. We should also adhere to the long-term orientation of the market and strive for the steady growth of the market adjustment mechanism.