基于博弈论与可拓学的非正常接发列车人因风险评价

Evaluation on human factor risk of abnormal train reception and departure based on game theory and extenics

为更加准确且全面地对非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险进行评价,提出基于博弈论与可拓学的人因风险评价模型。在工作人员认知机理的基础上,构建认知行为模型,考虑到人因风险指标数据的特性,利用博弈论的思想将由AHP法得出的主观权重与由熵值法得到的客观权重进行最优组合,克服了单一赋权法的不足;引用可拓学原理,建立多级可拓评价模型,修正了风险评价的偏差,使人因风险评价更加准确。实例计算表明:此方法运用到铁路非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险评价是有效的,且可为科学制订风险控制措施提供依据。

In order to evaluate the human factor risk of train reception and departure operation under the abnormal conditions more accurately and comprehensively,an evaluation model of human factor risk based on game theory and extenics was put forward. The cognitive behavior model was constructed based on the cognition behavior mechanism of staff,and considering the self characteristics of human factor risk index data,the optimal combination of the subjective weights obtained by AHP method and the objective weights obtained by the entropy method was carried out by using the idea of game theory,which overcame the shortage of single weighting method. The multi-level extension evaluation model was established by using the principle of extenics,which corrected the deviation of risk evaluation effectively and made the evaluation of human factor risk more accurately. The case calculation showed that it is effective and feasible to apply this method in the evaluation on human factor risk of abnormal train reception and departure,and it can provide the reference for formulating the risk control measures scientifically.