计及源-网-荷不确定性因素的马尔科夫链风电并网系统运行可靠性评估

Operational Reliability Evaluation of Wind Integrated Power Systems Based on Markov Chain Considering Uncertainty Factors of Source-Grid-Load

考虑风电出力、元件故障及负荷波动对系统运行可靠性评估的影响,提出一种计及源-网-荷不确定性因素的马尔科夫链风电并网系统运行可靠性评估方法。首先建立不确定性因素等值运行可靠性模型;其次,将系统运行状态进行划分,建立风电并网系统马尔科夫链模型,进而根据系统状态样本数据得到马尔科夫链状态转移矩阵;再次,根据状态转移矩阵和当前运行状态,能够准确评估系统当前时刻可靠性水平,快速预测未来时刻状态概率,定量分析不确定性因素对运行可靠性的影响;最后,采用改进IEEE-RTS79系统,对文中所提模型和方法进行了验证,结果表明所提模型和方法的正确性和有效性。

In view of uncertainty of wind energy variability,component failure and load fluctuation,possibly leading to significant increase of system operational risks,an operational reliability evaluation approach of wind integrated power system based on Markov chain considering uncertainty factors of source-grid-load was presented.Firstly,equivalent operational reliability models considering uncertainties were established.Secondly,Markov chain was introduced to divide system operational states into three categories：healthy,marginal and risky,and Markov chain model of wind integrated power system was constructed.A Markov system operational state transition matrix was obtained based on simulation data of the power system.According to the state transition matrix and current operational state,current reliability level can be evaluated accurately,and probability of the system state in the future can be predicted rapidly.Influence of the uncertainty factors on operational reliability was analyzed.Finally,effectiveness and rationality of the models and method were proved in modified IEEE-RTS79 test system.