舰艇作战系统可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Warship Combat System

针对作战系统现场数据量不足影响系统可靠性分析的问题,提出基于舰艇任务和Bayes法分析作战系统可靠性的方法;首先,以某型舰的近程反导舰炮武器系统为对象,给出舰艇近程对空作战的典型任务剖面;然后,基于任务建立系统的任务可靠性模型;最后,采用Bayes方法评估模型中各子单元的任务可靠度,并根据模型的串并联结构得到系统可靠度;所提方法简单、有效,为相关系统的可靠性分析提供有益参考。

In order to solve the reliability analysis problem of warship combat system,an analysis method based on task and Bayes was proposed. Firstly,aimed at the short range antimissile warship gun weapon system,the typical mission profile of short range air combat was given. Secondly,the reliability model based on system task was established. Finally,Bayes method was used to estimate the unit reliability in the model,and the system reliability was calculated according to the model structure. the proposed method provides simple and effective reference for reliability analysis of related systems.