基于模糊DEMATEL关键基础设施灾害环境下的关联影响分析

Analysis of critical infrastructures association under disaster environment based on fuzzy DEMATEL

构建关键基础设施一阶和高阶IIM模型,从宏观角度定量分析不同关键基础设施系统间的相互依赖影响。利用三角模糊数修正专家评价估计值,减小主观因素影响,运用完善的DEMATEL方法,确定关联矩阵,二者结合可更有效的量化关键基础设施间的关联关系。模型应用于自然灾害案例,根据关联矩阵对比分析五大关键基础设施系统间的相互影响程度;根据一阶和高阶IIM模型定量对比说明高阶循环依赖加剧了各系统受影响程度,对初始受扰动系统的影响尤为明显,灾害环境下为有侧重的对关键基础设施系统进行保护和有效的开展城市应急准备提供依据。

Constructed infrastructure input-output model for the first-order and the higher-order to quantitative analyze the effect of interdependence from a macroscopic view. Introduced triangular fuzzy number to correct the estimated value of experts which would reduce subjective factors. Used improved DEMATEL to determine the incidence matrix. The combination of each other quantifies the association more accurate and effective. Apply the model to the actual case of disaster and make the comparative analysis of interdependence on five critical infrastructures based on the incidence matrix interaction. The model illustrates that the higher-order cyclic interdependence has deeper effects, especially to the system of initial disturbance. So it is useful for protection and effective emergency preparedness of critical infrastructures.