福建省茶叶气象灾害致灾危险性区划与评估

Disaster-causing hazard division and evaluation of meteorological disasters for tea in Fujian Province

为了摸清福建复杂地形下茶叶单灾种及多灾种综合致灾风险,利用福建省1972—2014年气象数据和农业统计资料,构建致灾因子危险性区划指标体系,基于AHP-EWM方法和加权综合法量化计算各指标权重和灾害风险指数,开展茶叶单灾种及多灾种综合致灾危险性区划,评估福建省茶叶气象灾害致灾危险性。结果表明:福建茶树萌芽至展叶期寒冻害的致灾危险性最大,其次是越冬期冻害和采摘期连阴雨,而夏季高温和夏秋旱对茶树致灾的影响相对较小。福建大部茶区的气象灾害综合致灾危险性呈轻度至中度,轻度危险区主要分布在福建沿海地区及南部内陆县市的部分地带;中度危险区主要分布在除沿海地区和鹫峰山区、戴云山区、武夷山区、玳瑁山区和博平岭的高海拔地域以外的地域;重度以上危险区主要分布在鹫峰山区、戴云山区、武夷山区、玳瑁山区和博平岭山区的高海拔区域,其中1 000 m以上高海拔地区有严重气象灾害危险性。建议在轻度至中度气象灾害危险区增加茶叶种植面积,重度灾害危险区必须通过优化茶叶种植结构,种植耐寒的中小叶种及晚生的春茶品种,以避开气象灾害威胁,同时加强茶叶气象灾害的监测预警和防御,通过"避"和"防"的措施减轻茶叶气象灾害风险;而对于高海拔地区(1 000 m以上)有严重气象灾害的危险性区域,种植风险高,不适宜种植茶叶。

In order to identifieate the comprehensive risk of single disaster and multiple disasters for tea under the complicated terrain of Fujian, using the meteorological and agricultural statistics data from 1972 to 2014 in Fujian Province. The index system of risk division for disaster-causing factors was established by using the method of AHP- EWM to quantify the calculation of index weight and the method of weighted summation to calculate the comprehensive disaster risk index. Based on the single disaster and multiple disasters of risk division for disaster-causing, the disaster-causing risk of the meteorological disasters for tea is evaluated in Fujian. The results show that the highest risk of tea in Fujian was chilling and freezing injury from germination to frondescent, Wintering freezing injury and continuous rain in picking period was followed by, the influenee of high summer temperature and draught in summer and autumn was relatively low. The comprehensive risk of meteorological disasters in most of tea production area inFujian presented mild or moderate risk, and the comprehensive risk regions of mild meteorological disaster were mainly distributed in coastal areas and part of the southern inland counties. The risk regions of severe and over severe disaster were mainly distributed in mountainous areas such as Jiufeng mountain, Daiyun mountain, Wuyi mountain, Daimao mountain and Bopingling mountain, among which the attitude more than 1 000 meters had more severe risk of meteorological disasters. The other regions in Fujian showed moderate disaster risk. It was suggested that for the risk regions of mild or moderate risk regions, the tea planting area could be increased. For the risk re- gions of severe disaster, culture system must be optimized, planting varieties adapted to cold should be extended, for example, small or middle leaf species and spring tea varieties which planting time later than usual. What was more, early warning and defense for the risk of meteorological disasters should be strengthened to mitigate the meteorological disasters risk. In the risk regions of more severe meteorological disaster, it was suggested to avoid tea cultivation.