摘要
纺织品出口是中国对外贸易的有力支柱,是推动中国经济发展的重要引擎。受国内外形势的影响,中国纺织品出口受到了严重挑战,尤其是棉纱出口,数量与价格纷纷下滑,使棉纺织企业受到严重冲击。ARMA模型既能对平稳的时间序列变化趋势进行预测,也能对有一定变化趋势的时间序列进行预测,能准确预测随机事件的短期变化趋势。运用ARMA模型预测了中国的棉纱出口量,取得了理想的效果。
Textile export is the pillar industry of China＇s foreign trade, and is an important engine to promote China＇s economic development. Affected by the situation at home and abroad, China＇s textile exports had been seriously challenged, especially cotton yarn exports, whose number and price had declined. The cotton textile enterprises were seriously affected. The ARMA model can not only predict the change trend of the stationary time series, but also predict the time series with certain change trend. ARMA model was used to predict export cotton yarn in China, and the ideal result was gotten.
出处
《国际纺织导报》
2017年第12期57-61,共5页
Melliand China
关键词
棉纱
出口
数量
预测
ARMA模型
cotton yarn
export
quantity
prediction
ARMA model
