朝美双向威逼与朝核危机的出路

DPRK-US Mutual Compellence and A Solution of North Korea Nuclear Issue

朝鲜核问题久拖不决的症结在于美国和朝鲜都采用威逼战略。朝鲜试图通过核导试验和虚言恫吓打破制裁、实现朝美关系正常化；美国则试图通过经济制裁和武力威胁迫使朝鲜无条件弃核。双方都试图迫使对方改变现状，立场相去甚远。解决朝核危机的关键在于朝鲜和美国都转交战略，变“双向威逼”为“双向吓阻”，即朝鲜用核武器吓阻美国的军事进攻，美国则吓阻朝鲜使用及扩散核武器。然后，按照中国提出的“双轨并进”思路，同时开展朝鲜半岛无核化及建立半岛和平机制谈判。

The author argues that the crux of North Korean nuclear issue is that both North Korea and the United States have adopted compellence strategy. North Korea’s purpose is to break the sanctions and normalize relations with America via nuclear and missile tests and intimidation; the United States is trying to force North Korea to abandon nuclear program unconditionally through economic sanctions and the threat of force. Both sides try to force each other to change the status quo,and the positions of both sides are far away from each other. The key to the settlement of the nuclear crisis lies in the transition of the strategies of both North Korea and the United States,shifting from mutual compellence to mutual deterrence,namely North Korea uses nuclear weapons to deter US military attack,the United States deters North Korea to use or proliferate nuclear weapons. In accordance with the idea of dualtrack approach proposed by China,the negotiations on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a peace mechanism are carried out at the same time.