大国太空防务态势及其影响

Great Power Space Defence and Its Impact

太空的重要性日益增加。卫星是军力“倍增器”和“赋能器”。大国采取相应的太空防务战略，由此形成太空防务态势，表现为进行太空军事建设，组建太空军事部门；追求反太空能力；提升整体太空实力。大国太空防务博弈呈现以下特征：太空控制与反控制加剧；美日结成太空进攻性同盟；中俄在太空防御上结伴而行；大国加强非对称手段进行太空博弈。大国太空防务态势加重了太空军备竞赛，导致太空首攻稳定性降低，引发核战风险，导致核裁军与核军控进程受阻。在可预见的将来，大国太空防务态势将加剧太空紧张局势。

The importance of space is increasing. The satellite is a military multiplier and enbler. According to their own space strategies,the great space powers adopt different space defense strategies,thus forming space defense postures,which include the great space powers conducting space military construction,building space military departments,pursuing anti-space weapons,promoting the overall space power as the foundation for the construction of space defense. The defense postures of the great space powers have obvious gaming characteristics,which is composed of space control vs. anti-space control,a space offensive alliance between Japan and the United States vs.space defense quasi-alliance between China and Russia,and asymmetric means for the space game among the great space powers. The space defense postures have intensified the anti-missile and space arms race,resulting in the decrease of the first attack stability in space and the risk of nuclear war,which has led to the hindering of nuclear disarmament and the process of nuclear arms control. In the foreseeable future,the great powers will only intensify tensions in space.