NACPADS及其在核事故后果评价中的应用

Nuclear accident consequence prediction and assessment system and its applications

介绍了环境保护部核与辐射安全中心开发的核事故后果预测与评价决策系统(Nuclear Accident Consequence Prediction and Assessment Decision System,NACPADS)的主要功能和特点,重点分析了NACPADS的精细评价模式、快速评价模式以及根据辐射监测结果估算剂量模式。最后,将NACPADS应用于我国某核电厂事故应急演习中,评价分析事故情景下的放射性影响。计算结果表明:NACPADS适用于核事故的早期后果评价。

[Background] The nuclear accident consequence prediction and assessment decision system（NACPADS） is developed by Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center of Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China for quick and accurate evaluation of the consequences of nuclear accidents. [Purpose] This study aims to assess and analyze the radioactive effect in accident scene for nuclear power plant accident emergency exercise in China. [Methods] Three modules, i.e., fine evaluation, rapid evaluation, and dose estimation based on radiation monitoring results, are implemented in NACPADS. The detailed evaluation module possesses funtionalities of the source input, meteorological, atmospheric diffusion and dose calculation, protection action and its consequence calculation etc., thus can be used to give detailed evaluation results. The rapid evaluation module is possessed of simple atmospheric diffusion and dose calculation for quick and simple evaluation results. According to the radiation monitoring results, the dose module is designed for dose calculation using field radiation monitoring data. [Results]The calculation results showed that NACPADS was suitable for early consequence assessment of nuclear accidents. [Conclusion] NACPADS can quickly provide emergency protection actions such as concealment, evacuation and iodine, and provide necessary support for the emergency decision-making of China’s nuclear safety regulators.