政治金融周期与大国货币政策效应

Political-Financial Cycles and Monetary Policies Effects of Great Powers

把握金融周期规律对金融稳健发展具有重要作用,政府换届是影响金融市场运行不可忽视的因素。在观察国际经验事实的基础上,采用面板数据回归分析和交叉谱分析实证得出:不同类型的市场经济国家都存在显著的"政治金融周期",政治周期是影响本国金融周期的重要因素;本国金融周期亦受到核心国货币政策的显著影响,但影响效应小于本国政治周期;各国金融周期存在一定的数量关系,但密切程度高低不一,未出现统一变化的周期性规律。因此,为了熨平跨境资本流动、维护本国经济平稳发展,应测算和把握国际金融周期规律,实施主动的货币政策,并在保持货币政策独立性前提下实施适度的结构性资本管制。

To grasp the financial periodic law is very important in the steady financial develop- ment, and government succession is a factor affecting the operation of the financial markets, which is not to be neglected. Based on the observations of international empirical facts, this article adopts the panel data regression analysis and the cross-spectrum analysis to conduct an empirical study. The fmd- ings indicate that there exists a significant ＂political-financial cycle＂ in the market economy countries of different types, and that political cycle is an important factor affecting the financial cycles of the country. The financial cycles of one country is also significantly affected by the monetary policies of the core countries, but the effect is smaller than the political cycle of the country. There exists a cer- tain numerical relationship among the financial cycles of every country, but the levels of intimacy are different, no universally-changed periodicity law is found. Therefore, in order to smooth the cross-bor- der capital flow and maintain the stable development of the country＇s economy, it is necessary to measure and grasp the periodic law of international finance, to implement active monetary policies, and to carry out moderate structural capital control under the premise of keeping the independence of monetary policies.