水库区滑坡涌浪风险评估技术研究

Risk assessment research on impulse wave generated by landslide in reservoir

2003年蓄水以来,三峡水库发生了多起滑坡涌浪灾难性事件。滑坡涌浪灾害的增多推动着水库滑坡涌浪风险评估的发展。系统阐述专项水库滑坡涌浪风险评估的目的、内容和对象,定义滑坡涌浪风险评估相关概念,并构建风险评估范围界定、涌浪危险性分析、易损性分析、涌浪风险估计和涌浪风险划分5个分析步骤的水库滑坡涌浪风险评估技术框架。以三峡库区巫峡板壁岩崩塌隐患点为例,展示典型水库滑坡涌浪风险评估流程及每个步骤的产品。板壁岩涌浪主要承灾体为河道船只,停泊船只的可能最大直接经济损失约为13万元,航行船只的可能损失数量为2艘。长江河道有约3 km为板壁岩涌浪的高风险区域。定量化的滑坡涌浪风险评估体系有利于圈定涌浪灾害的风险点或区域,也有利于多个滑坡涌浪的风险排序。

Many disastrous events of impulse waves generated by landslides have occurred in the Three Gorges Reservoir since its impoundment in 2003. This paper describes systematically the purpose,content and object of risk assessment for landslide induced impulse wave in reservoir for the first time and gives the definitions to the relevant concepts and establishes the technical frame with five phases,including the scope definition,hazard analysis,vulnerability analysis,risk estimation and risk division. The risk assessment process of impulse wave in reservoir and the products in every phase are demonstrated through the potential rockfall at Banbiyan in Wu Gorge of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The main risk receptors of landslide generated impulse wave at Banbiyan are ships in the waterway,with the potential maximum direct economic loss of thirteen thousand Yuan to anchored boats and possible two sailing ships capsized. There is a high risk area about three kilometers long suffering from the landslide generated impulse wave at Banbiyan in the Yangtze River. A quantitative risk assessment system for landslide induced impulse wave is beneficial to delineating the risk point or region suffering from the impulse wave disaster,and ranking the risk order of many potential landslide-induced impulse waves.