云南省出口东盟的特征及其经济和就业贡献率分析

Characteristics and the Contribution Rate of Its Economy and Employment of Yunnan’s Exports to ASEAN

利用海关信息数据、统计年鉴数据、相关贸易指标以及投入产出方法分析云南省与东盟之间的出口贸易特征,出口带来的经济和就业贡献。结果表明：云南省与东盟之间的贸易依赖关系显著增强,但是与东盟联系强度的空间分布不均匀,同时云南对东盟的出口产品出现升级特征,由矿产品、化工产品为主的出口转向了以农产品、电子制造产品为主的出口。云南省出口东盟农林牧渔产品对本省经济和就业贡献率最大,对农林牧渔产品深加工,有助于云南省的经济增长和保障就业,同时也有助于促进产业发展向技术密集型产业转型。

Yunnan Province is located in the frontier of Southwest China, which borders on Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos. Since the agreement of Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation Between the People＇s Republic of China and the Association of South East Asian Nations, the trade relationship between Yunnan Province and the ASEAN plays an important role in the development of Yunnan Province. With＂the Belt and Road＂moves on, the trade relationship between Yunnan Province and the ASEAN would further intimate, while its export characteristics have also undergone tremendous changes. By using data from Customs and statistical yearbook, and with the help of related trade index and input-output method, this article analyzes export characteristics between Yunnan Province and the ASEAN. The result shows： the trade dependence between Yunnan and the ASEAN has been significantly enhanced, while Yunnan＇s export trade to countries of the ASEAN is geographically unbalanced. Yunnan＇s export trade to the ASEAN has upgraded, from minerals-,chemical products-oriented to agricultural products-, electronic manufacturing products-oriented. As Yunnan Province＇s export to ASEAN, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery products had the strongest economic and employment effects, it can be argued that Yunnan＇s export products upgrading can alleviate the employment problem, while promoting industrial transformation to technology-intensive industries. Under the research result, we take some advises that： firstly, ASEAN countries has a high economy growth rate, and Yunnan Province should be closer to ASEAN in the trade, especially to Vietnam etc.; Secondly, Yunnan Province should continue to promote the upgrading of export products for ASEAN steadily, especially for light industrial products to ensure the economic growth and employment growth incurred by the export; Thirdly, Yunnan Province should take＂the Belt and Road＂opportunities to increase its trade with ASEAN fully, and help to develop its economy. However,＂the Burmese conflict＂and other incidents would hinder the trade between Yunan and ASEAN, and China should offer some help for solving regional conflicts, which would help to build stronger trade relationship between Yunnan and ASEAN.