产业集聚减排效应的空间溢出与门槛特征

Spatial Spillover and Threshold Effects for Emissions Reduction of Industrial Agglomeration

聚集经济理论认为，产业集聚一般能够促进区域内污染减排，但随着产业集聚程度的加深，区域环境污染可能产生空间上的异质性。更重要的是，空间异质性使得产业集聚与环境污染关系复杂化，传统的空间同质性假设难以全面刻画二者之间的非线性关系。因此，本文基于2000～2014年中国大陆30个省的面板数据，采用空间面板杜宾模型和面板门槛回归模型，检验中国省域产业集聚与环境污染之间的非线性空间联系。结论表明：①产业集聚与环境污染具有空间非对称格局特征，绝大部分省份集中分布在高污染高集聚型（HH）和低污染低集聚型（LL）。②产业集聚的减排效应的确存在明显的空间溢出效应，且区域间的溢出强于区域内的溢出。③产业集聚的减排效应存在显著的门槛特征，在时间上表现出来的是倒“U”型关系。由此，提出要严格制定和落实差异化的区域政策、要高度重视产业集聚污染减排的空间溢出效应、要动态处理产业集聚与环境污染关系的相关政策建议。

According to theories on agglomeration economies, industrial agglomeration can generally enhance the regional pollutant reduction effects. However, the regional pollutant may produce spatial heterogeneity with the deepening of industrial agglomeration. More importantly, since spatial hetero- geneity can make the relationship between industrial agglomeration and environmental pollution more complicated, the classic hypothesis of spatial homogeneity cannot provide an overall description of non- linear relationship between them. Therefore, based on the panel data of China＇s 30 provinces from 2000 to 2014, we use both spatial Durbin model and threshold panel regression model so as to study the nonlinear spatial linkage both industrial agglomeration and environmental pollution at Province-Level in China. Firstly, our results show that industrial agglomeration and environmental pollution are charac- terized by a spatial asymmetric pattern, and most provinces are of high pollution-high agglomeration or low pollution-low agglomeration. Secondly, there are indeed remarkable spatial spillover effects for the pollution abatement effects of industrial agglomeration, and the spatial spillover effects of interregional are greater than within region. Thirdly, there are significant threshold feature for the pollution abate- ment effects of industrial agglomeration, and industrial agglomeration and environmental pollution have a U-shaped relationship with respect to time. As a consequence, we proposes some practical suggestions for policy making： To strictly make and implement the differentiated policies, to pay highest attention to spatial spillover effects of the pollution abatement effects, to dynamically deal with the relationship between industrial agglomeration and environmental pollution.