我国政府支出的宏观效应研究

The Macroeconomic Effects of China's Government Expenditure

扩大政府支出是我国积极财政政策的重要手段。本文在将我国政府支出的规模和结构进行分析和国际比较的基础上,讨论了政府支出影响宏观经济产出的传导机制,并运用向量自回归模型进行实证研究,计算出我国政府支出对居民消费、社会投资和宏观产出的实际影响,并区分了中央政府和地方政府支出的不同效果。最后提出要适度扩大中央政府支出比重,加大对社会保障、医疗卫生等民生领域支出,保持对科技和教育领域的支持力度,注重货币政策的配合和放宽对私人投资限制等政策建议。

Expanding government expenditure is an important means of China＇s positive fiscal policy. Based on the analysis and international comparison of the scale and struc- ture of China＇s government expenditure, this paper discusses the transmission mecha- nism of government expenditure on macroeconomic output. By using VAR model, we calculate the real effects of government expenditure on household consumption, private investment and economic output, and distinguish the different effects of central govern- ment expenditure and local government expenditure. Finally, we put forward policy proposals such as moderately expanding the proportion of central government expendi- ture, increasing spending on social security, health care and other livelihoods, main- taining support for science, technology and education, paying attention to the coordi- nation of monetary policy and relaxing restrictions on private investment.