货币政策与房地产价格波动:来自中国区域异质性的分析

Monetary Policy and Real Estate Price Fluctuation:An Analysis on Regional Heterogeneity from China

学界对货币政策是否应该盯住房地产价格一直存在争论,以房地产市场为载体的货币政策区域效应为分析该问题提供了新的视角。应用PVAR模型对货币政策与房地产价格以及货币政策最终目标之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明货币政策能够影响房地产价格波动且存在区域异质性,但在政策工具向最终目标的传递过程中不是所有区域的房地产市场都能有效地发挥载体功能。针对区域房地产价格泡沫而执行的McCallum扩展规则将影响其他区域基础货币的正常供给。而执行Taylor扩展规则会加剧房地产市场非有效载体区域的通货紧缩,同时也会给其他区域经济基本面带来负面效应。采取盯住房地产价格的货币政策规则会导致货币政策总体上过松或过紧,并造成不希望的经济增长和通胀波动。因此,房地产价格不应该被纳入到货币政策规则中。

Academia has been debating on whether monetary policy should monitor the real estate price. Regional effects of mone- tary policy transmitting via real estate as a carrier will provide a new perspective for the study of this problem. This paper empirically analyzes the relationship among monetary policy, real estate price and policy aims using PVAR model. The results show that monetary policy can affect real estate price fluctuations with regional heterogeneity. But not all regions of real estate market as a carrier can play a normal function in the process of transmission from the policy tools to the ultimate goal. Extended McCallum rule executed against the regional real estate price bubble will affect the normal supply of the basic currency in other regions. And Extended Taylor rule executed will exacerbate deflation in the regions which real estate market is ineffective as a cartier, while it can bring negative effects to other regional economic fundamentals. The monetary policy rules eyeing on the real estate price will result in too loose or too tight overall monetary policy, and lead to undesirable economic growth and inflation fluctuation. Therefore real estate price should not be included in the monetary policy rules.