FDI、对外贸易、入境旅游与海南省经济增长——基于VAR模型的分析

FDI, Foreign Trade, Inbound Tourism and Economic Growth of Hainan Province

基于1987—2015年海南省FDI、对外贸易、入境旅游的数据,建立VAR模型,采用协整检验和方差分解,对海南省经济增长要素及其贡献率进行研究。结果显示,海南省的经济发展仍具有很大潜力,着重引进外商直接投资并大力发展旅游业,加快开放型经济的发展是海南省经济实现长足稳定增长的主要途径。

Based on the data of FDI,foreign trade and inbound tourism in Hainan Province from 1987 to 2015,a VAR model was established. The cointegration test and variance decomposition were used to study the factors of Hainan＇s economic growth and its contribution rate. The results show that the economic development of Hainan Province still has great potential. Emphasis will be laid on introducing foreign direct investment and vigorously developing the tourism industry.