贵州出口商品贸易竞争力及贸易结构变迁研究

Research on the Trade Competitiveness and the Structural Change of Guizhou's Export Commodities

文章基于2001-2015系列数据,运用TC指数、RSCA指数以及回归分析等方法,对贵州出口商品竞争力及贸易结构展开分析,研究发现:出口贸易占贵州外贸总额比重不断增大,且在中国新一轮的全域开放格局下还存在广阔的发展空间;长期以来资本密集型商品出口在全国占比最高,近年非熟练劳动力密集型商品和人力资本密集型商品成为贵州主要出口的大类商品;基于TC指数计算出的贵州自身具有竞争力的商品要多于置于中国及世界对比视角下基于RSCA指数估算的结果;"十二五"期间是贵州省出口贸易结构变化最大的阶段,且整体朝好的方向发展。

This paper, based on 2001-2015 series of data and by means of TC index, RSCA index and OLS methods, has an analysis of the trade competitiveness and the structural change of Guizhou’s export commodities. It is found that export trade accounts for an increasing proportion of Guizhou’s total foreign trade and has a broader developing space in China＇s new round of global opening pattern. For a long time, the exports of Capital-intensive goods has been accounting for the highest proportion among China＇s exports and in recent years, unskilled labor-intensive products and human-capital-intensive goods have become Guizhou’s two major export goods. Guizhou’s own competitive goods calculated on the basis of TC index are more than those over China and the world calculated by means of RSCA index. During the period of the Twelfth Five-year Plan, Guizhou’s export trade structure changes a lot and develop toward good direction.