城市产业结构、集聚对城镇化影响效应分析——基于中国35个大中城市的经验证据

Analysis of the Influence of Urban Industrial Structure and its Concentration on Urbanization——Based on the empirical data from 35 large and medium-sized cities in China

基于中国35个大中城市2000-2015年的相关数据,应用静态固定效应面板模型分析城市产业结构,集聚对城镇化影响效应。结果表明:城市产业结构升级与城镇化之间具有明显的正相关关系,而且长期内产业结构进一步升级与城镇化之间呈"J"型曲线趋势;虽然产业集聚对城镇化进程产生积极的推动作用,但过度的集中则使产业集聚与城镇化之间呈现倒"U"型曲线的关系。对此,应抓住国家的政策机遇,利用好当前经济下行压力及市场倒逼机制,加快产业结构优化速度,大力促进生产性服务业及制造业集聚,转变城市以往粗放型发展方式,以提高城镇化发展质量和水平。

Based on 2000-2015 data from 35 large and medium-sized cities of China and by adoption of static fixed effect panel model, the influence of urban industrial structure and its concentration on urbanization is analyzed. The result shows that there is a positive correlation between the upgrading of industrial structure and urbanization and in the long term, there is a tendency towards “J” curve when the industrial structure upgrades further. Although the influence of industrial structure concentration on urbanization is positive and effective, yet if industrial structure concentrates excessively, they will develop in the form of the curve of inverted ‘U’. In virtue of this, the policy opportunity should be seized, the current downward economic pressure and market forcing mechanism should be made the most of, the optimization of industrial structure should be sped up, the combination between productive serve industry and manufacturing industry should be promoted, and the urban intensive development mode should be transformed for the purpose of improving the quality and level of urbanization.