FDI促进我国产业结构升级的路径研究——基于结构方程模型

Analysis of Path on Upgrading China's Industrial Structure by FDI Based on Structural Equation Model

为了更加深入地探究外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investmentt,FDI)与我国产业结构变动之间的关系,对FDI作用于我国产业结构升级的具体路径以及效果进行研究;运用2008—2014年29个省、自治区及直辖市数据,基于结构方程模型并使用AMOS软件对整个路径进行模拟检验,计算各路径具体影响系数。结果表明:FDI对于我国产业结构升级具有积极的正向作用。其中技术进步路径是促进产业结构升级的最优路径。投资结构提升对于产业结构升级具有较大推动作用,但现阶段我国FDI对于投资结构提升作用有限。FDI通过提升消费结构促进产业结构升级的路径影响力有限,边际效果很小。

In order to explore the relationship between FDI and China' s industrial structure change,path and effect of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure in China are investigated.Through collecting and analyzing data of 29 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2008 to 2014,a simulation test was conducted on all relevant paths,and the influence coefficient of each path by the application of AMOS was analyzed on the basis of structural equation modeling(SEM).Results indicate that,FDI exerts a positive impact on upgrading the industrial structure.Technological progress is the optimal path for the upgrading.Optimization of investment structure can largely promote the upgrading of industrial structure in spite of the fact that FDI at present only exercises a limited effect on the promotion of investment structure.Besides,the contribution of FDI to the upgrading through the improvement of consumption structure is insignificant and has little marginal effect.