综合能源电力系统保障风险评估模型

Risk Evaluation Model of Integrated Energy Power System

电力保障是能源管理和国家发展的重要方面。文章选取资源、生产、输送、市场和消费五个风险源,借鉴灾害风险评价方法,构建综合能源保障风险评价指标体系。研究表明:与系统保障风险相关性较大的是经济社会发展水平和可再生能源开发利用情况;系统保障危险度指标总体呈现"东部地区高、西部地区低"的特征;将中国31个省按五个等级风险进行分区。为分析确定综合能源电力系统风险成因及应对举措、制定相关规划及管理体制提供参考。

Power supply is closely related to energy management and national development.This paper built an evaluation index system of integrated energy supply risks based on the natural disaster risk evaluation and selected five risk resources which are :resources,production,transportation and finally,market and consumption.It shows that:The social economic development level and the development and utilization of renewable energy has a greater correlation with systematic supply risk; The system supply risk indicator shows a feature of "high in the eastern places and low in the western places" as a whole; The paper divided the Chinese 31 provinces into different groups according to five risk levels.The findings provide some practical means for analysing the cause of risks and taking some measures to avoid them.Meanwhile,this paper also enables suitbale risk management systems.