山东省牧草产业供给侧结构性改革经济效益分析——基于“粮改饲”政策背景

Economic Benefit Evaluation on Supply-Side Structural Reform in Shandong Forage Industry Based on The “Grain to Forage” Strategy

以2016年山东省牧草种植农户与企业的调研数据和山东省主要粮食作物统计资料为基础,计算牧草种植、加工成本收益基本信息,对主要粮食作物生产近10年间的成本利润变化进行分析,比较分析山东省粮食与牧草生产成本收益,以评价"粮改饲"政策实施后牧草产业供给侧结构性改革的经济效益。分析发现目前粮食种植存在成本逐年升高、价格波动大的问题,利润基本已经达到瓶颈,而种植苜蓿(Medicago sativa)、全株青贮玉米(Zea mays)收益可观,在保证良好的土地资源和合理的田间管理条件下,"粮改饲"项目基本上可实现种草高于种粮的经济效益。

Based on survey data of farmers and enterprises who planted forages in Shandong Province and the statistics of major grain crops,we calculated the cost-benefit information of herbage planting and processing,and analyzed the cost and profit variation of major grain crops for the last 10 years. Further,in order to evaluate the economic benefits of the forage industry structural reform of supply-side after the implementation of the "Grain to Forage"strategy,we compared the cost-benefit between growing forage and grain in Shandong Province. The results indicated that the cost of grain cultivation increased year by year and the price fluctuated greatly,thus the profits had basically reached the bottleneck. While planting alfalfa( Medicago sativa)and whole corn silage( Zea mays) had considerable profits. We concluded that under the conditions of ensuring fertile land resources and reasonable field management,the "Grain to Forage"strategy could basically achieve higher economic benefits of planting forage than planting grain.