基于系统动力学的乳制品冷链库存与终端收益仿真

A System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of Dairy Product Cold Chain Inventory and Terminal Revenue

为了有效控制乳制品冷链的库存温度和运作效率,依据系统动力学原理,引入了第三方物流,建立了由生产商、供应商和零售商组成的乳制品冷链系统动力学模型,并使用Vensim软件进行仿真分析。模拟了系统在阶跃需求、随机需求等不同需求模式下的表现,以及在不同温度与运作效率下的库存水平与终端销售状况。结果表明:在同样的需求模式下,当温度控制在0℃时的终端收益高于温度保持在–4℃时的终端收益;同时提高冷链的运作效率即缩短订货提前期和到货延迟,有助于减少质量损失成本,增加零售商利润,这对构建良好消费环境和减少食品安全问题提供了理论参考。

Under the low temperature environment, the operation process of the whole cold chain was analyzed, the thirdparty logistics introduced into the system, and a casual analysis chart and a system dynamic flow chart constructed. Themodel of dairy cold chain was established, which was composed of manufacturers, suppliers and retailers, based on SystemDynamics. Then, a simulation experiment was carried out by using Vensim software. The performance of the system underdifferent demand modes such as step demand and stochastic demand was simulated. The inventory level and terminal salesstatus of the system under different temperatures and operating efficiency were simulated. The results of experimentsshowed that in the same demand mode, when the temperature is kept at 0℃, the terminal gain is higher than that of –4℃;while the higher the efficiency of the entire system, the smaller the inventory of each node inventory is, and the higher thequality of the dairy products. In the cold chain, the control of the inventory storage temperature can reduce the cost of massloss. Improvement of the operation efficiency of the cold chain, by shortening the lead time and delivery delay, can helpincrease the profit of the retailer and reduce quality cost.