统筹视角下城乡生态文明二元化测度及动态模拟研究——以黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市为例

The Measurement and Dynamic Simulation of Ecological Civilization Dualization Based on Urban-rural Integration: a Case of Qiqihar City

以黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市为例,引用失衡度模型测度齐齐哈尔市各县域2010~2014年城乡生态文明的失衡程度,通过空间自相关中的Moran’s I和G*系数揭示齐齐哈尔市各县域失衡程度的空间聚散状态,最后利用Matlab R2012a的灰色预测模型模拟并预测其城乡生态文明未来五年的失衡值.结果表明:(1)各县域生态文明失衡程度多处在濒临失衡与轻度失衡之间.县域之间失衡度差异较为明显,拜泉县、富裕县和龙江县失衡程度渐趋严重.社会生态文明失衡是齐齐哈尔市城乡生态文明失衡的主因;(2)由失衡度Moran’s I值可知,各县域生态文明失衡度空间上多表现为弱性随机分布状态,极少出现失衡度集聚效应,各县域独立发展.由失衡度冷热点可知,失衡严重县域集聚现象逐渐加剧,严重区集中在齐齐哈尔市东北部;(3)齐齐哈尔市地区在预测的五年内城乡失衡持续加重,2015~2019年将持续处于轻度失衡状态,与均衡状态的差距愈发增大.

Taking as a case Qiqihar of Heilongjiang Province, the degree of urban-rural ecological civilization imbalance of its each county in 2010 ~ 2014 are measured,and then the spatial aggregation state about each county＇s ecological civilization is revealed through the value of spatial correlation. While gray prediction model is used to simulate and predict the urban-rural ecological civilization imbalance in the next five years by Matlab R2012 a. The results show that：（ 1） The imbalance of ecological civilization among the counties is between the imminent imbalance and the mild imbalance,and the imbalance between the counties is obvious. The imbalance of Fuyu,Longjiang and Baiquan is becoming more serious,furthermore the imbalance of social civilization is the main cause of unbalanced ecological civilization in Qiqihar. The spatial correlation is not intense,showing a random distribution state of different properties;（ 2） From the spatial pattern of imbalance degree in hotspot classes,the imbalance areas in serious sate are increasing in space, otherwise the imbalance is concentrated in the northeast region of Qiqihar;（ 3） In the next five years,urban-rural ecological civilization imbalance degree of Qiqihar will be gradually increased,2015 ~ 2019 in a mild state of imbalance,and the gap between the state of balance is increased.