灾害恢复力的量化方法讨论与实证研究

Discussion and Empirical Research of Quantitative Method of Disaster Resilience

推动自然灾害恢复力研究从定性的理论框架研究到指标融合的加权指数评估,再到基于数学模型的定量评估,是运用恢复力概念解决减灾实际问题的迫切需求,值得深入研究。目前,对如何测量恢复力这个问题仍存在很大的争议。如果对恢复力的测量仅停留在概念层面,恢复力在减灾中的实际作用和意义将难以显现。恢复力反映了灾害发生后经济社会系统自我调节并恢复到灾前水平的能力,在灾后重建过程中,在追求速度目标的同时也要考虑救助力度能否支撑这一目标。本文搭建基于产业关联影响的间接损失评估模型,定量评估恢复力变化与实际灾害损失的关系,有利于在时间和力度两方面对恢复力的概念加深理解,促进恢复力可操作性的讨论和实践。

To promote the resilience research from the qualitative theoretical framework to weighted index assessment and finally to quantitative assessment based on mathematical model is the urgent need to solve practical problems of disaster reduction,it is worth further researching.Although there is still a lot of controversy over how to measure resilience,it is only stay at the concept level,and its role in disaster reduction will be difficult to show. The lack of practical guidance on disaster reduction policies will also be hard to change. This paper quantitatively evaluates the relationship between the change of resilience and the actual disaster loss by setting up the indirect loss assessment model from the point of view of conceptual framework of resilience which reflects the ability of socio-economic system to self-regulate and recover to predisaster level. Therefore,the qualitative conception of disaster recuse—"when we are in the pursuit of speed goal of post-disaster recovery,we should also consider whether the rescue effort can support the realization of this goal"can be solved by numerical solution. According to the discussion on quantitative resilience,we hope this paper useful to better understand the concept of disaster resilience from the perspective of time and strength,so as to promote the discussion and practice of the operability of resilience.