长三角“人口—土地—经济—社会”城镇化的耦合协调性研究

Study on Coupling Coordination Degree Among “Population,Land,Economy and Society” Urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta Region

"人口—土地—经济—社会"四维城镇化的协调,是新型城镇化进程推进与质量提高的重要条件。本文构建了"人口—土地—经济—社会"城镇化耦合协调度模型,并对长三角地区多维城镇化的耦合协调度进行了测度与对比分析。研究发现:2005~2013年长三角各个维度下城镇化发展水平在波动中呈现不断提高的趋势,在此之后各个维度下城镇化发展水平均出现逐年降低的趋势;2005~2008年长三角地区各个城市均为中低协调耦合状态,2008年之后大多数城市为中度耦合协调,小部分城市达到中高协调耦合;2015年上海、苏州、镇江、宁波处于低度协调耦合,扬州、杭州、台州处于高度协调耦合,其他城市均处于中度协调耦合。整体来说长三角地区各个城市的协调耦合程度仍有待提高。因此,长三角地区在城镇化的进程中,应从正外部性角度出发,充分发挥协调度较高城市的集聚效应;从正内部性角度扩大协调度较低城市的土地供给和调整产业结构。

The coordination of the four-dimensional urbanization of “population, land, economy and society” is an important condition for the advancement of new urbanization and the improvement of quality. In this paper, the model of population,land, economic and social urbanization coordination is constructed, and the coordination degree of multidimensional urbanization inthe Yangtze River Delta is measured and compared. The study finds from 2005 to 2013 the Yangtze River Delta under various dimensions of urbanization development level shows a rising trend in the wave, then under various dimensions of urbanization development level is gradually decreased year by year; every city in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005～ 2008 are low coordination couplingstate, after 2008 most of the cities are moderate coordination, small part of the cities to achieve high coupling coordination; In2015 Shanghai, Suzhou, Zhenjiang, Ningbo, Yangzhou are at the low coordination coupling, Hangzhou and Taizhou are highlycoordinated, other cities are in the moderate coordination coupling. As a whole, the coordinated coupling between cities in theYangtze River delta still needs to be improved. Therefore, in the process of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta, from the perspective of positive externalities and give full play to the agglomeration effect of the city expansion of higher coordination degree; coordinate degree lower city land supply and adjust industrial structure from the perspective of internal positive.