媒体报道、预期与房价波动

Media Coverage,Expectation and Housing Price Volatility

本文以预期为载体将媒体报道因素引入住房市场均衡模型,并运用中国21个大中城市的数据样本,实证检验了媒体报道与房价波动的动态趋势,结果发现:媒体关注度和媒体情绪对房价波动的作用机制不同;媒体关注度对一线城市和二三线城市房价波动的影响存在明显差异,当期媒体关注度对二三线城市的影响大于一线城市;媒体情绪对房价波动的影响存在着明显的不对称,相较于悲观的媒体情绪,乐观的情绪经公众传染所形成的"螺旋"效应更大,更容易催化公众的房价上涨预期,助长房地产市场的投资热情,进而加剧房价波动。

In this paper, we introduce the media coverage factor into the housing market equilibrium model with expectation as a carrier. Employing the data samples of 21 cities in China, we empirically test the dynamic trend of the media coverage and house price volatility. The results show that： The influence mechanisms of media attention and sentiment to housing price volatility are quite different. The impact of the media attention on the price fluctuations of the first-tier cities,the second and third-tier cities is divergent. The current media attention has a greater impact on the second and third-tier cities than on the first-tier cities. The influence of the media sentiment on the price volatility is asymmetric. Compared with the pessimistic media sentiment, the ＂spiral＂ effect of optimistic sentiment generated by public contagion is more likely to catalyze the expectation of rising public housing prices, which encourages the investment enthusiasm of the real estate market and thus intensifies the fluctuation of housing prices.