内河航运安全指数构建和发布机制研究

Research on the Establishment and Release Mechanism of Waterway Safety Index

为提高内河航运管理人员安全意识,提升内河航运安全管理水平,提出建立内河航运安全指数的思路。从人、船舶、环境和管理因素四个方面全面分析了内河水上交通安全的影响因素,确定各种因素对事故发生的影响程度。提出了基于贝叶斯理论的安全指数的计算方法,以长江为例,建立了内河航运安全贝叶斯网络拓扑结构图,进而对长江某段的通航安全进行评估。最后,提出了内河航运安全指数发布周期、发布流程、部门支撑和发布途径等,供我国内河航运管理部门参考。

In order to improve the safety awareness of inland shipping managers and the safety level management, it put forward the idea of establishing inland shipping safety index. This paper comprehensively analyzed the influencing factors of inland waterway traffic safety in the four aspects of human, ship, environment and management, and determined the impact of various factors on the accident. A method of calculating safety index based on Bayesian theory was proposed. Taking the Yangtze River as an example, a topological map of inland navigation security Bayesian network was established, and assessed the navigational safety of a segment of the Yangtze River. Finally, I index, release process, departmental support and put forward the release cycle of inland shipping safety release channels, it could give reference to shipping management department. Keyword： Waterway safety; Influencing factors; Safety index; Release mechanism