金正男遇刺后朝鲜对韩战争风险探析

The Risk of War between Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Republic of Korea after the Assassination of KIM Jongnam

战争一直是朝韩争夺半岛统一领导权的重要手段之一,自2010年延坪岛炮击后,双方武装冲突日益频繁。2017年2月13日,金正男遇刺及韩国政局动荡正从主观和客观两方面增加朝鲜对韩动武的国家意志。同时,驻韩美军备战松弛,美国缺乏长期海外战争准备,尤其"萨德"部署造成韩国与中俄关系恶化等使得国际对朝制约因素被极大削弱。东北亚的区域环境与国际环境都向着刺激朝鲜对韩动武的方向发展,半岛战争风险正快速累积。

Starting a war has been always taken as the most important way for DPRK and South Koreacontending the leadership of Korean Peninsula unification. Since ＂Yeonpyeong Island Shell＂ in 2010, armedconflict between the two parts has been more and more frequent day by day. Recently, from a subjectiveperspective and an objective one, both KIM Jongnam being assassinated and South Korea turbulent politicalsituation are promoting the national will of DPRK levying a war against South Korea. At the same time, theUSFK combat readiness is flabby and the U. S. is also lacking of long term preparation for commencing anoversea war. Moreover, Thad displaying deteriorates the relationship with China and Russia to South Korea.Both the environment of Northeast Asia region and International satiations are developing to the direction infavor of DPRK levying a war against South Korea. The potentiality of war is accumulating quickly in theKorean Peninsula.