高固定资产投资增长率是否抑制财政自动稳定器发挥作用?

Whether the High Growth Rate of Fixed Asset Investment Inhibit the Function of Fiscal Policy Automatic Stabilizer?

为了验证中国现有的关于财政自动稳定器的理论分析的可靠性,使中国的财政自动稳定器能够发挥更好的效果,文章基于中国1999-2014年的30个省份的经济宏观数据,通过采用静态面板回归模型和系统GMM估计模型相结合的方法研究财政政策发现,我国的财政政策的确自动发挥了稳定宏观经济的作用。考虑到固定资产投资增长率对经济波动的影响,文章利用门槛回归模型进一步研究高固定资产投资增长率给财政自动稳定器效果带来的影响,研究结果显示:当固定资产投资增长率过高时,的确会减损财政自动稳定器的效果。因此,国家应增加累进性高的直接税在税收中所占比重,加强税收政策的稳定器功能。同时,降低GDP在地方政绩考核中的比重,冷却个人和政府的投资热情,避免过高的固定资产投资增长率对财政自动稳定器带来负面影响。

In order to prove the reliability of existing theoretical analysis of fiscal automatic stabilizers in China,make fiscal automatic stabilizers of China work better,this paper is based on the macroeconomic data of 30 provinces in China from 1999 to 2014,by using the static panel regression model and the GMM estimate model to study the fiscal policies. The results showed that the fiscal policies of our country do play a role in stabilizing the macro economy automatically. Considering the impact of the growth rate of fixed asset investment on economic fluctuation,the paper uses the threshold regression model to study the effect of the high growth rate of fixed asset investment on the function of fiscal automatic stabilizers,The results showed: when the fixed asset investment growth rate is too high,it will reduce the effectiveness of fiscal automatic stabilizers significantly. Thus,the state should increase the proportion of direct taxes in taxes,strengthen the function of the tax stabilizers. At the same time,reduce the proportion of GDP in the assessment of local achievements,and cool the investment enthusiasm of person and government,to avoid excessive fixed asset investment growth rate has a negatively impact on fiscal automatic stabilizers.