人民币计价国际债券的统计指标设定和分析

Establishment and Analysis on Statistical Indicators of RMB Denominated International Bonds

从货币职能中的记账单位职能出发,以国际债券为对象,以2005—2016年的季度数据为时序,对人民币计价的国际债券进行统计指标的设定,并且运用VAR模型、协整检验和方差分解对其计量分析。结果显示:人民币升值情况对人民币国际债券的规模贡献率最大,债券市场深度和人民币汇率波动则相对较小,对外贸易发展状况的加深反而会对人民币计价国际债券的规模产生负向作用。

Based on the functions of the accounting unit in the monetary function,the international debt is used as the target,the quarterly data of 2005-2016 in the time,the statistical index of the RMBdenominated international bonds is set and the VAR model,the co-analysis of variance decomposition are used.The results show that the appreciation of the RMB has the largest contribution to the scale of RMB international bonds.The depth of the bond market and the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate are relatively small.The deepening of the development of foreign trade will have a negative effect on the scale of RMB denominated international bonds.