基于生态位模型研究醉马草在青海省的潜在分布区

PREDICTION THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF ACHNATHERUM INEBRIANS IN QINGHAI BASED ON ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

本文通过最近邻体距离法和相关性分析分别选取样本数据和环境变量,并应用最大熵方法(Maxent)建立生态位模型,分析了影响醉马草潜在分布的主要环境因素,预测了醉马草在青海省的潜在分布区域。结果表明:等温性、最潮湿季节的平均温度、年平均降水量和季节性降水量对醉马草的潜在分布影响较大;醉马草在青海省有广泛的潜在分布区,主要分布在青海湖附近和黄河流域。虽然目前醉马草的现实分布区远小于潜在分布范围,但其具有相当大的扩散空间,应高度重视醉马草的危害性,严格监控其向潜在适生区域扩散蔓延。

At present study, the occurrence records and environment variables were respectively selected by thenearest neighbor distance method and correlation analysis, and then the ecological niche model was established？using maximum entropy （Maxent）. Based on Maxent simulations, the main environmental factors affecting thepotential distribution of A. inebrians was analyzed, and the potential distribution regions of A. inebrians in Qing-hai were predicted. Results showed that isothermality, mean temperature of the wettest quarter,annual averageprecipitation and precipitation seasonalityhave great influence on the potential distribution of A. inebrians.Thereare a wide range of potential distribution areas of A. inebrians in Qinghai province, mainly in the vicinity ofQinghai lake and the Yellow River basin.Although the current distribution of A. inebrians is far from the biggestpotential distribution range, it is still likely to continue to spread. The perniciousness of A. inebrians should beattached high attention, and the dynamics of spread to the potential distribution area should be strictly moni-tored.