基于浴盆曲线的配电变压器故障率模型

Fault rate model of distribution transformer based on bathtub curve

为建立一种综合反映不同时期配电变压器的故障率模型,从故障率呈浴盆曲线特性出发,分别分析了不同阶段影响故障率的因素。针对偶然故障期设备故障率主要受气候影响的特性,选取最能表征天气特征的因素,采用灰色关联分析的方法建立历史故障率数据与待求故障率之间的关系并予以求解。对于耗损故障期设备故障率随服役时间增长呈指数型增长的特点,采用威布尔分布进行拟合,同时利用配电变压器状态评价结果与设备期望寿命之间的关系,将评价结果作为参量引入故障率模型中。在算例分析中,当历史数据缺失设备状态评价结果信息时,可采用非序贯蒙特卡洛法求解拟合参数的近似值。算例所获结果表明新模型具备表征不同阶段配电变压器实际故障率的能力。

In order to establish a comprehensive reflection of different periods of distribution transformer failure rate model,the factors influencing the failure rate in different stages are analyzed according to the characteristics of bathtub curves. The relationship between the historical failure rate data and the failure rate to be solved is established by the method of gray relational analysis,which is based on the characteristics of the equipment failure rate mainly affected by the climate,and the factors which can best characterize the weather characteristics. The failure rate of the equipment is exponentially increasing with the service time, and the Weibull distribution is used to f i t the equipment failure rate. In the mean time, the relationship between the evaluation results and the equipment l ife expectancy is used to introduce the evaluation result as the parameter Rate model. In the case study, when the historical data is missing the information of the equipment state evaluation result,the non-sequential Monte Carlo method can be used to solve the problem. Approximate value of the combined parameter. The results of the example show that the new model has the ability to characterize the actual failure rate of the distribution transformer at the different stages.