人口结构对中日美房地产市场影响的比较研究

A Comparative Study of Demographic Structure Influence on Real-estate Markets in China,Japan and America

以老龄化问题为特点的人口结构成为影响政府决策的重要宏观因素,也引来各学科学者的关注。房产市场同样是另一个重要的热门话题。是什么因素造成房产市场在不同国家表现迥异?人口结构的不同是否造就房地产市场相悖的长期走势?基于美国1975—2010年州级样本、日本1980—2010年郡县级样本和我国2002—2013年省级样本数据,综合运用线性和面板数据方法,从人口总抚养比、老年抚养比、少年抚养比和城市化等多维度考察人口结构对房地产市场的影响。研究结果表明:人口结构变化对日本、美国和中国房价的影响存在阶段性差异。城市化阶段不同是人口结构对中、日、美影响程度不同的主要原因。区分具体影响时,少年抚养比与房价呈显著负相关关系,而老年抚养比对房价的影响则出现了分化,美国老年抚养比与房价呈正相关关系,日本和中国方面则是负相关关系。最后,就稳定我国房地产价格走向提出政策建议。

The aging problem characterizes the present demographic age structure and becomes an important macro factor in decision making of policymakers,which attracts a wide attention of researchers in various fields. House market is another important and popular issue. We make an attempt to explore what causes these different phenomena and whether demographic age structure is the key factor of long-term trend in house market in USA,Japan and China respectively. Using the state-level data of US from1975 to 2010,Japan county samples from 1980 to 2010 and provincial data from 2002 to 2013 in China,we conduct a linear and panel data estimate to analyze influences of total dependency ratio,youth dependency ratio,old-age dependency ratio and urbanization？ ratio on house price changes respectively. The results show that effects of demographic structure change on house prices exert periodical differences in Japan,the United States and China. Urbanization ratio is the main reason for different influences of population structure in China,Japan,and the United States. Specifically,youth dependency ratio has a negative correlation with real estate asset price in USA,Japan and China. When it comes to old age dependency ratio,results differ in three countries where dependency ratio and hose price are negatively correlated in Japan and China significantly,while in America it is positively correlated. Finally,we propose some policy recommendations with respect to stable real estate price in China.