美国国家安全委员会的模式特点及决策困境:从奥巴马到特朗普

The Characteristics and the Patterns of the US National Security Council and the Dilemma of Its Decision Making:From Obama to Trump

美国国家安全委员会经历70年发展,一方面逐渐形成较为稳定的决策机制,另一方面每一届政府的国安会均受到总统、国家安全顾问以及重要幕僚相互关系的影响。国安会目前已步入组织结构上的"稳定期",但也面临"老年危机"带来的挑战,其决策困境从奥巴马执政期间已有表现。奥巴马及特朗普任内,国安会在人事设置和组织架构上并未出现巨大调整,各有其特点与弊病。奥巴马执政后期,国安会受到重视,迎来组织机构规模的巅峰,但决策权力却集中在"小圈子"少数人手中,效率低下、异化严重。特朗普执政初期,国安会人事变动频繁,经过一段时间磨合后呈现若干新特点,作用初步彰显。但特朗普的国安会相比奥巴马任内陷入更严重的"老年危机",面临自我定位迷失、总统重视不够、国家安全顾问角色模糊并受到各方掣肘等重重挑战,直接影响未来美国对外政策的制定与走向。

The US National Security Council(NSC)saw its development over 70years,gradually having formed a relatively stable decision-making mechanism;while the NSCs of every administration are influenced by the interrelationships among the Presidents,the National Security Advisers and important staff members.The National Security Council has now entered a'stable period'of organizational structure,but it is also facing the challenge of 'old age crisis',with the dilemma of decision emerging during the Obama administration.The personnel configurations and organizational structures of the NSCs have not shown significant adjustments during Obama and Trump administrations,with the respective characteristics and maladies of their own.During the latter part of the Obama administration,the National Security Council was taken on an added importance,ushering in the pinnacle of the scale of the organization;but the decision-making power was concentrated in a few hands of the 'small circle',leading to inefficiency and serious alienation.While in the early days of the Trump administration,the NSC saw personnel changes frequently,taking initial effect with a number of new features after a period of running-in.Compared with Obama's NSC,however,Trump's NSC is suffering an even more serious'old age crisis,'facing multiple challenges such as its self-positioning in perplexity,a lack of attention of the President,an ambiguity of the role of National Security Adviser,and the constraints of various parties,and directly affecting the development and direction of the future US foreign policy.