土耳其在叙利亚危机中的困境:原因与前景

Turkey's Predicament in the Syrian Crisis:Causes and Prospects

土耳其国内挑战和外交困局在叙利亚危机中交织在一起。土耳其的叙利亚政策面临着倒巴政策失效、叙利亚库尔德武装乘势坐大、"伊斯兰国"组织反噬、难民难题和外交困局等多重困境。究其原因,土耳其正发党追求新奥斯曼主义和教派主义,力图以叙利亚为战略支点,重塑中东地区秩序以争夺地区主导权,以及土耳其误判叙利亚危机形势演变,高估自身实力和影响力是主要内因。域外大国与地区强国在叙利亚的复杂博弈,则是加剧土耳其对叙政策困境的外因。土耳其对叙政策走出困境,一方面取决于正发党的外交现实主义调整;另一方面也受美俄中东博弈以及库尔德和"伊斯兰国"组织因素的影响。

Turkey's domestic challenges and diplomatic predicaments are intertwined in the Syrian crisis.Turkey's policy towards Syria is facing multiple predicaments such as the failure of the policy of overthrowing Bashar al-Assad,the emergence of the Kurdish militia in Syria by taking a ride with the trends,the backfire of the 'Islamic State',the refugee problems,and diplomatic dilemmas.The very reasons are that the Justice and Development Party in Turkey is pursuing both Neo-Ottomanism and sectarianism,trying to reshape the order of the Middle East to compete for regional dominance by using Syria as a strategic fulcrum.The main internal causes include Turkey has misjudged the evolution of the Syrian crisis situation by overestimating its own strength and influence.The intricate gaming of extraregional powers and regional powers in Syria is the external cause that exacerbates the predicaments of Turkey's policy towards Syria.For Turkey's policy towards Syria to get out of the predicaments,it depends on the realist adjustments for diplomacy of the Justice and Development Party on the one hand;and it will also be influenced by the struggle of the United States and Russia in the Middle East,and the organizational factors of the Kurdistan and the 'Islamic State' on the other hand.