基于POET模型的重庆市水资源利用影响因素分析

Assessment for factors affecting urban water resource utilization in Chongqing based on POET model

作为人类生存和社会发展的重要基础资源,水资源的合理高效利用对人类社会的可持续发展具有重要战略意义。目前,大量结构性因素深刻影响着城市乃至国家层面的水资源利用机制。文章基于Duncan的生态复合体(POET)模型,运用多元回归分析方法,从人口、社会组织、环境和技术4个维度,探讨了重庆市水资源利用结构性因素对用水总量和用水强度的影响。结果表明:人口维度方面,总人口及15~64岁人口比率的增加会加大用水总量、提高用水强度;社会组织维度方面,城镇化率、第二产业占GDP比重的增长对用水总量和用水强度的增加具有促进作用,而人均GDP的增加会减少用水总量、降低用水强度;社会环境维度方面,实际利用外商投资额占GDP比值的增长会加大用水总量、提高用水强度,而水价的上涨会抑制用水总量和降低用水强度;技术维度方面,污水处理率的提高会减少用水总量、降低用水强度。

Water is one of the crucial natural resources for human survival and social development. The rational and efficient utilization of water is strategically significant for sustainable development of human beings. At present, many structural factors affect water utilization at urban and national scales. Based on Duncan’s ecological complex （POET） model and the multipleregression analysis method, we investigated the effects of the structural factors of water resourcesutilization on the total amount and intensity of water consumption in Chongqing City, in terms of different dimensions of population, social organization, environment and technology. The results showed that in terms of population dimension, the growth of total population and the proportion of population aged 15-64 years in the total population promoted the increase of the total amount and intensity of water utilization in Chongqing. In terms of social organization dimension, the increases of urbanization rate and the proportion of secondary industry GDP accelerated the increase of the total amount and intensity of water utilization. However, the increases of per capita GDPreduced both parameters. From the aspect of environment dimension, the growth of the ratio of actual use of foreign investment to GDP increased the total amount and intensity of water utilization of Chongqing, while rising water price helped control water consumption and decrease theintensity of water utilization. Finally, the increase of the sewage treatment rate reduced the total amount and intensity of water utilization in terms of the technical dimension.