当前国际恐怖主义演变趋势及中国应对策略

The Current Trend of International Terrorism and China's Strategy

当前及今后一段时期,受不确定而动荡的国际及地区局势的影响,国际恐怖主义将继续保持高发态势。极端组织"伊斯兰国"(ISIL)虽然遭到重创,但短期难以将之彻底剿灭。失去政权后的"伊斯兰国"将向常态化的恐怖组织转型。相当长时期内,全球恐怖主义发展将呈现全球化、独狼化、社会化、网络化等特征。当代国际恐怖主义新发展趋势使中国面临内外反恐压力增大,尤其是周边地区的反恐形势日益严峻,海外安全利益威胁急剧上升。同时,国际上亦有批评中国在反恐上"不作为"噪音。在习近平新时代中国特色大国外交框架下,中国如何积极有效参与国际反恐斗争成为新的重大课题。

At present and in the future, international terrorism will continue to flourish because of the uncertain and unstable international and regional situations. The ISIL, an extremist group, has been hit hard, regime collapsed and lost the territory, but in the short term it is hard to destroy it completely. The ISIL will transform into a normal terrorist organization. For a long period of time, the development of global terrorism will be characterized by global- ization, lone-wolf, socialization and informatization. The new development trend of contemporary international ter- rorism let China face the increasing internal and external pressure on counter-terrorism, especially the deteriorating situation of terrorism in the surrounding areas. The threat of China＇ s overseas security interests are at an all-time high. At the same time, there are a few criticisms of China＇ s ＂inaction＂ on counter-terrorism. Under the frame- work of the great power diplomacy of China under the xi jinping era, how China will participates in the international fight against terrorism actively and effectively has become a new major topic.