锦州市肾综合征出血热发病率与鼠带毒指数相关性的研究

Correlation between hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and rodent virus index in Jinzhou

目的探讨肾综合征出血热发病率与鼠带毒指数之间的相关性,为预测肾综合征出血热发病率提供科学依据。方法根据《全国肾综合征出血热监测方案(试行)》进行监测,运用Spearman相关分析和χ2检验方法对2008—2016年锦州市人间和鼠间肾综合征出血热的发病率与带毒指数进行相关性分析。结果2008—2016年锦州市共确诊1 053例HFRS患者,年平均发病率为3.75/10万。室内和野外平均鼠密度分别为4.15%和3.51%,各年之间鼠密度存在极为显著差异(F=14.900,P<0.01);而带毒率分别为7.79%和2.77%,差异极为显著(χ~2=33.614,P<0.01)。鼠带毒指数和人群发病率呈正相关(r=0.705,P<0.05)。结论锦州市HFRS疫源地普遍存在,鼠密度及带毒率的高低直接影响人群发病,应加强鼠间疫情监测。

Objective To analyze the correlations between hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome（HFRS） and rodent virus index,and provide scientific basis to predict incidence of HFRS.Methods According to the national HFRS monitoring program,correlations analysis between human incidence of HFRS and rodent virus index from 2008 to 2016 in Jinzhou were made with the Spearman correlation analysis and chi-square test.Results 1 053 cases of HFRS patients were confirmed.The incidence of the average annual was 3.75 per 100 000 in Jinzhou.The average annual densities of indoor and field rodent were 4.15% and 3.51% respectively,there was significant difference statistically（F = 14.900,P 〈 0.01）; and the virus carrying rates were 7.79% and 2.77% respectively,significant difference statistically（χ2= 33.614,P 〈 0.01）.The correlation coefficient between virus index and incidence was 0.705.Conclusion In Jinzhou,the foci of HFRS exists widely.Density and virus rate of rodent will directly affect the incidence of HFRS.So surveillance among rats should be strengthened.