基于WRF-Chem模式的PM_(2.5)预报效果评估

Evaluation of PM_(2.5) Forecast Performance Based on WRF-Chem Model

为了解华东区域气象中心业务化运行的基于WRF-Chem的"华东区域大气环境数值预报业务系统"对于安徽省PM_(2.5)浓度的预报性能,结合2015年6月至2016年5月观测资料,对其预报效果进行了评估。结果表明:模式预报值与观测值的总体相关性较好,不同时效的预报效果均能达到"优秀"的范围;预报偏差的空间分布整体呈现出北部偏小,南部偏大的特点;2015年夏、秋季24h预报平均偏差呈现东北部偏小,其他地区偏大,2015年冬季、2016年春季东北部分地区和沿江江南部分地区预报值偏小,参与评估的14个城市不同季节平均偏差均在±30μg·m^(-3)以内;该模式产品对于安徽省大部分城市中度及以上污染天气PM_(2.5)浓度漏报率多于空报率。

In order to understand the PM_（2.5） concentration forecasting performance over Anhui Province,the forecasting results of the Operational Forecasting System for Atmospheric Environment over East China based on the WRF-Chem Model is evaluated in combination with the observation data from June 2015 to May 2016.The results show that：（1）The correlation between the model-forecasted values and the observed is good,and the prediction performance of different lead times can reach＂excellent.＂（2）The spatial distribution of the mean forecast bias is negative in North Anhui and positive in South Anhui.（3）The mean biases of the 24-hour forecasts in the summer and autumn of 2015 were negative in the northeast Anhui and positive in other regions.In the winter of 2015 and spring of 2016,the mean biases for the northeastern Anhui province and south of the Yangtze River were negative.The mean bias of the 14 cities in different seasons was within ±30μg·m^（-3）.（4）The missing rate was bigger than the false alarm ratio in moderate and above pollution days for most cities in Anhui Province.