2017年油料和食用植物油市场形势分析及2018年展望

Oilseeds and Edible Vegetable Oil Markets in 2017 and Their Prospects for 2018

国际市场,2016/17年度油籽和食用植物油产量均创历史新高,油籽需求增速不及供给增速,导致期末库存大幅增加,食用植物油消费逐渐恢复,期末库存同比下降。2017年,全球油籽、食用植物油价格震荡下行,但年均价格同比均呈不同程度上涨;国内市场油籽、食用植物油消费总体延续弱势,但是品种间走势差异较大。受国内产需缺口较大影响,油料、食用植物油进口量均同比增长。综合全球油籽、油脂供需基本面,预计短期内,国内外食用植物油价格仍以震荡为主,后期价格走势受气候影响较大。

In the global market, the output of oilseeds and edible vegetable oil both created historical high in 2016/17. The demand growth of oilseeds was less than supply growth, which led to a substantial increase in ending inventory. While the consumption of edible vegetable oil gradually recovered, the ending inventory decreased year on year. In 2017, the prices of global oilseeds and edible vegetable oil fluctuated downward, but the annual average prices rose year on year in different degrees. Meanwhile, in the domestic market, the overall consumption of oilseeds and edible vegetable oil continued to be weak, with large difference among different varieties. For the great gap between domestic demand and supply, the import amount of oilseeds and edible vegetable oil both increased year on year. Taking the situation of supply and demand of the global oilseeds and oil into account, the price of edible vegetable oil was expected to experience fluctuation in the short term and the future price trend would be m＇eatlv influenced by the climate.