中国苜蓿市场供需预测

Supply and Demand Prediction of Alfalfa in China

2012年中国启动"振兴奶业苜蓿发展行动"计划,对苜蓿的重视程度提高,但市场上苜蓿供求关系紧张,制约了奶牛养殖业的提质增效,也影响了苜蓿产业在中国的发展。主要利用计量经济模型以及预测模型等对苜蓿供给和需求关系进行研究发现,虽然苜蓿种植面积大,但是苜蓿供应短缺。利用2001—2015年中国苜蓿主要种植省份的面板数据,构建苜蓿供给反应模型和需求影响因素模型,结果显示,苜蓿供给在种植方面主要受前期收购价格、前期种植面积以及前期相关商品价格的影响,有明显的滞后性;在单产方面主要受前期收购价格、前期单产、自然灾害以及施肥情况的影响。苜蓿需求主要受苜蓿收购价格、原料奶价格、规模以上养殖场奶牛存栏数以及企业加工能力等的影响。利用灰色马尔科夫模型和二次指数平滑模型对苜蓿的供需进行了预测,发现未来5年中国苜蓿供需缺口逐渐增大。为了更好地解决苜蓿供需间的矛盾,提出要加强农企合作,鼓励农户种草;抓住关键技术,加强创新研发;加强市场建设,提高风险防范水平。

In 2012, China started ＂the revitalization of the dairy industry alfalfa＂ plan, and the emphasis of alfalfa was improved. The supply and demand of alfalfa was tight, which restricted the dairy farming to improve the quality and benefits and also affected the development of alfalfa industry in China. This article mainly used econometric models and forecasting models to study the supply and demand relationship of alfalfa, and found that the supply of alfalfa was shortage although the planting areas were large. Using panel data of the main planting provinces of China＇s alfalfa from 2001 to 2015, the authors built the supply response model and demand model about alfalfa. The results showed that： for the supply, the planting of alfalfa was mainly influenced by previous purchase price, previous planting area, previous related commodity prices, which had obvious hysteresis, in terms of yield per unit, it was mainly influenced by previous purchase price, previous yield per unit, natural disaster and fertilization; and for the demand of alfalfa, it was mainly influenced by the purchase price, the price of raw milk, cow stock of breeding farms above designate size and the processing ability of enterprises. Using the grey Markov model and secondary exponential smoothing model, the authors forecasted the supply and demand of alfalfa, and found that the gap of supply and demand of alfalfa would increase. In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of alfalfa, we put forward some suggestions, such as strengthening the cooperation between farmers and companies, encouraging farmers to grow grass, seizing key technology and strengthening innovation research, strengthening market construction and enhancing the level of risk prevention.