近70 a黑河径流量周期特征变化规律

Variation regularity of periodic characteristics of runoff in Heihe River in the last 70 years

根据黑河不同水文站点的监测资料,利用Mann-Kendall法和小波分析对莺落峡、正义峡、哨马营和狼心山水文站径流量序列进行了分析.结果表明:莺落峡、正义峡、哨马营和狼心山的年径流量距平百分率分别呈逐年增加、减少、增加、减少态势,10 a增长率分别为3.051%、-3.149%、21.24%、-2.092%,各个站点径流量趋势变化不同;根据小波系数等直线图,莺落峡、正义峡分别在35~60、30~45 a尺度上特征明显,哨马营、狼心山分别在5~10、8~15 a尺度上特征显著,狼心山大尺度特征较为明显,小尺度特征很平稳且具有全域性;莺落峡、正义峡、哨马营和狼心山对应的主控周期分别为44、44、7、5 a,近10 a丰枯情况依次为丰、枯、枯、丰,同一流域的不同河段,主控周期不一致.

Based on different Heihe River hydrology site monitoring data, the Mann-Kendall method and the wavelet analysis were used to analyze the runoff series of Yingluoxia, Zhengyixia, Shaomaying and Langxin Mountain hydrological stations. The results indicated that the trend of annual runoff anomaly percentage of Yingluoxia was increasing year by year. Zhengyixia, Shaomaying and the change trend of Langxin Mountain, in turn, was to decrease, increase and decrease again. The increasing rate of ten years was respectively 3.051%,-3.149%, 21.24% and-2.092%, and the trend of change did not present the synchronization and consistency in general. According to the line graph of wavelet coefficient, Yingluoxia had an obvious feature in the 35-60 year scale, and Zhengyixia＇s feature in 30-45 year scale was obvi- ous. The characteristics of Shaomaying were obvious at the scale of 5-10 years, and the Langxin Moun- tain was characterized by a significant scale in 8-15 years. The characteristics of the large scale were obvious, but the small scale features were smooth and global. Yingluoxia, Zhengyixia, Shaomaying and Langxin Mountain corresponded to 44, 44, 7 and 5 years respectively. In the past 10 years, the abundance, dryness, dryness and abundance of the different river stretches of the same basin and the master control cycle were not consistent.