从长期视角透视近期经济减速的成因与稳增长的依据与条件

The Reason of Economic Slow-down and Condition of Persistent Growth in the Long Run

文章从长期视角将改革开放以来中国经济高速增长的原因归结为经济改革、全球化与对外开放、政府的有效治理机制、社会投资与人口红利、后发优势等五个方面。全球金融危机后,原先引致高速经济增长的因素和条件发生深刻变迁,长期存在的结构性扭曲和缺陷逐步凸显出来,致使近期经济增速放缓。从历史经验与发展趋势来看,要实现持续经济增长,需进一步深化改革,扩大对外开放,转变与重构政府职能,大力推动社会投资,持续发挥后发优势,利用好大国经济优势与高速增长的势能。

This paper regards the logic of china＇s high-speed economy growth from five aspects： economic reform,globalization and opening-up,effective governance mechanism,social investment and demographic dividend,late-mover advantage. After global financial crisis,the factors leading to china＇s high-speed economic growth is changing profoundly,the structural distortion and defects is emerging gradually,which results in economic slow-down. From historical experience and development tendency,to hold the persistent economic growth,we need deepen reform,widen opening-up policy,transform government functions,promote social investment,carry forward the late-mover advantage,utilize the inertia of high-speed economy growth and using the advantage of great power.