配电终端失效分布类型判断及失效率估算

Judgment on Failure Distribution Type and Estimation of Failure Rate for Distribution Terminals

配电终端的可靠性直接影响整个配电自动化系统的稳定运行。为合理预测其失效趋势,研究了配电终端失效分布类型判断及失效率估算方法。首先根据经验分布函数,初步判断配电终端某模块的失效分布函数,并利用参数估计和拟合优度检验,确定该模块的失效分布类型;然后根据所得参数和失效分布函数求得该模块的失效率函数,进一步求和得到整个配电终端的失效率;最后拟合得到的失效率函数符合一般设备的"浴盆曲线"特征,通过案例验证了所提方法可行而有效。

The reliability of distribution terminals directly affects the stability of the whole distribution automation system. To predict its failing trend,a method for judging the failure distribution type and estimating the failure rate is proposed. Firstly,the failure distribution function of a module in the distribution terminal is judged according to an empirical distribution function,and then the failure distribution type of the module is determined through parameter estimation and goodness of fitting tests. Secondly,the failure rate function of the module is calculated using the obtained parameters and failure distribution function,and the failure rate of the whole distribution terminal can be calculated by summation. Finally,the failure rate function obtained through fitting can satisfy the＂Bathtub＂curve,which is also a characteristic of general equipment,and the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method are verified through a case study.