新年观市(下)

Focus: New Year's view

2017年，三大主力船型市场新船需求均大幅反弹，但新船价格仍在低位徘徊：2018年，散货船和集装箱船市场有望进一步趋稳向好，但油轮新船需求或将回落。

In the past year, with the coming of the recovery, what has the shipping industry's performance been? Following the review of the previous issue that the four segments of container, dry bulk,tanker and special ship is prospected, the current content of the forward-looking market trends in the future is analyzed such as the ship, port, oil, financial leasing and logistics. In 2017, the worldeconomic recovery was good and the international ship market recovered, the demand of the three major new ship market underwent a sharp rebound and the difficulty of delivering situation was eased. But the new ship prices remained at the low end and the trend of the ship type segment value was a clear differentiation. In 2018, the international economic and trade development is expected to be sound and the shipping market of bulk carriers and container ships is expected to stabilize further, playing an active role in the recovery of the shipbuilding market. But there is a downside risk to the oil market and demand for new ships might fall after rise. With the continuous improvement of the global economic and trade environment, the global port industry is in good condition and its throughput is rising. In addition, with a sustained recovery of the global shipping market in 2017, the further integration of shipping enterprise alliance will add pressure of competition among ports. Great changes might occur in the global distribution of port market share and lines. At the same time, with the advance of Internet+, port information construction will become the main driving force of port business upgrading. As the world's third largest ship fuel supply center, China bonded fuel oil supply logistics mode is in its innovative change. Port infrastructure is continuing to be improved and oil supply scale steadily rebounded. It is expected to play the role of northeast Asia center of marine fuel oil injection. In the short term of the shipping market, it will be the main task of the bank to deal with the stock assets. Despite the huge impact of the downturn in the shipping industry, European banks did not have a comprehensive strategic contraction, but instead focused on more fragmented market dynamics and selective incremental operations. And Chinese financial enterprises will play an increasingly important role in the world shipping finance industry. In 2017, China's logistics industry took supply side structural reform as the main line, promoting structural optimization, power conversion and quality improvement. The main indicators were steady and positive, advancing quality and efficiency and achieving the stable and healthy development. In the future, it will be an important way to optimize the economic structure and improve the level of logistics operation and reduce the cost of institutional transaction. Logistics enterprises should apply modern supply chain innovation with related industries and integrate it deeply, and take improving logistics operation efficiency as the main attack direction.