保障性住房项目PPP模式可行性与投资决策研究——基于博弈论

Study on Feasibility and Investment Decision of PPP Model in Affordable Housing Project——Based on Game Theory

近年来,国家为解决住房供需矛盾大力推行保障性住房建设。采用PPP模式建设保障性住房既可增加保障性住房供给量,又可缓解政府压力,提高资金使用效率,稳定社会经济发展。根据文献识别出适用于保障性住房项目的四种PPP模式,构建了四种PPP模式下的投资回报率模型并判断四种PPP模式的可行性;建立了四种PPP模式下的博弈投资决策模型,运用等额年金法对四种PPP模式进行比较优选;以实际案例对构建的投资回报率模型和决策模型进行验算分析。

In recent years, the state vigorously promoted the construction of affordable housing in response to the contradiction between the supply and demand of housing market. And the application of PPP model to affordable housing projects could not only increase the supply of affordable housing, but also eased the government pressure, improved the efficiency of capital utilization and stabilized the social and the economic development. According to the literature, this paper identified four kinds of PPP modes applicable to affordable housing projects, and built four models of ROI under PPP mode to judge the feasibility of the four kinds of PPP modes. The game investment decision model of four kinds of PPP modes was established and this paper used the equal annuity method to compare and optimize the four PPP models. And then the actual case was used to verify the constructed ROI model and decision model.